Moore’s Law as we know it (the idea that the number of transistors that can fit onto a microchip doubles every two years or so) is coming to an end. We simply can’t make transistors any smaller. We have reached the limit at just a few nanometers. Other promising technologies are lining up, however, to ensure we can continue increasing computational power.

The most promising technology is Quantum computing. It is poised to change life as we know it with an ability to solve very complex tasks millions of times faster than today’s computers. Its ability to process unthinkable amounts of data will enable discoveries within many fields including medicine, machine-learning, aerodynamics, climate understanding and cryptography. Several companies have already released Quantum computers: D-Wave Systems, IBM, Rigetti and Google.

Quantum Supremacy occurs when Quantum computers perform a task that today’s super-computers are incapable of handling. In October 2019 Google publicly stated exactly that. They solved a problem in 200 seconds that would have taken today’s most advanced super-computer 10.000 years to solve. These experimental results are not yet applicable to solving practical problems. IBM has also pushed back on that claim, insisting that with some clever, classical programming, its machines can solve the same problem in 2.5 days.

It is, however, still a huge achievement, and has been called the “Hello World” moment of the next generation of computers.

Even though it probably will take several years for this technology to be widespread and commercially feasible, I still predict that we’ll see a real Quantum Supremacy moment in 2020.